The West is in a new space race led primarily by the U.S. to develop quantum computers before China or Russia gets there first. In the 1960s, the challenge was to put a person on the moon before Russia, and in the summer of 1969, NASA was the first (and thus far only) to achieve this remarkable milestone. Space exploration is a global effort, with countries working closely together in ways unimaginable here on Earth. Today the U.S. is faced with a similar challenge: to lead the development of quantum computers without stifling global cooperation. The decisions taken in the next five years by government leaders, technology companies, and investment firms will decide whether the U.S. and West lead in this critical technology or are forced to play by rules favoring authoritarian regimes.
The relevance of quantum computing to national security is well known. Apart from the critical importance of maintaining U.S. scientific leadership, quantum computing presents unique risks because more powerful quantum computers are likely to be used to defeat most public-key cryptography. Government agencies are concerned about a future where communications are no longer secure, online financial transactions are compromised and control over basic infrastructure is uncertain.
The U.S. lags behind many countries in quantum investments. Countries such as China recognized early the importance of quantum technology and are investing as much as $11B a year–vs. $3B in the United States–to win this “new space race.” Of course, government spending is not the only metric. The U.S. and Western allies have vibrant venture capital markets and other efficient mechanisms for delivering capital where it's needed to fund quantum technologies. That said, the investment community has a time horizon for returns that often does not align with the pace of quantum development. Importantly, their investments also are not targeted to achieve national quantum supremacy. They are individual efforts targeted at specific technologies and markets.
China, more than any other country, poses the greatest threat to U.S. quantum leadership. The Chinese government invests far more in development, bankrolls promising companies, and actively directs R&D efforts. Importantly, their approach is coordinated and focused on quantum technology as a strategic national interest.
The Chinese strategy for leading quantum computing relies only partly on developing the technology. Chinese companies and research institutions seek out Western partnerships that give them access to intellectual property. ChinaP is known to leverage research or academic partnerships to acquire dual-use technology. Some Chinese companies also purchase components from Western suppliers and reverse engineer them. Most quantum technology is only now beginning to be commercialized and the primary effort has been collaboration among researchers and institutions
One possible response is a “moonshot” effort to firmly establish U.S. leadership in quantum computing. Importantly, lines of effort should be established that pursue the most promising technological approaches.
Along with this need to invest in developing quantum computing, the West should continue to nourish competing ideas to ensure competition and diversity of ideas. Policymakers and the investment community in the U.S. and allied countries face the difficult task of encouraging risk-taking while needing to weed out approaches likely to fail.
The key to enabling cooperation is to make it a truly collaborative effort. If countries restrict the free flow of ideas too quickly they may become research islands that fall behind the rest of the world. Quantum computing is a foundational technology offering tremendous potential in multiple disciplines, including areas that have scarcely been explored. Quantum computers are being used to improve the electricity grid, develop more functional batteries, optimize transportation routes, and streamline drug development. Additional use cases will likely emerge as quantum computers become even more powerful. In the same way, the United States historically has been a leader in global cooperation to oppose totalitarianism, fight disease, and explore space, the U.S. can marshal its research and investment resources, both public and private, to provide leadership.